Excess mortality during the COVID-19 pandemic in Jordan: analysis of secondary data


This article was originally published here

JMIR public health surveillance. October 7, 2021; 7 (10): e32559. doi: 10.2196 / 32559.


BACKGROUND: All-cause mortality and excess death estimates are commonly used in different countries to estimate the burden of COVID-19 and assess its direct and indirect effects.

OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to analyze excess mortality during the COVID-19 pandemic in Jordan in April-December 2020.

METHODS: Official data on deaths in Jordan for 2020 and previous years (2016-2019) were obtained from the Department of Civil Registration. We compared death rates in 2020 with those for each year and the pooled period 2016-2020 using a standardized death ratio (SMR) measure. Expected deaths for 2020 were estimated by fitting generalized linear overdisperse Poisson models to monthly death counts for the period 2016-2019.

RESULTS: Overall, a 21% increase in standardized mortality (SMR 1.21, 95% CI 1.19-1.22) occurred in April-December 2020 compared to April -December of the combined period 2016-2019. The SMR was more pronounced for men than for women (SMR 1.26, 95% CI 1.24-1.29 vs SMR 1.12, 95% CI 1.10-1.14), and it was statistically significant for both sexes (P

CONCLUSIONS: The number of deaths from COVID-19 has underestimated mortality attributable to COVID-19. The excessive deaths could reflect the increase in deaths secondary to the pandemic and its containment measures. The majority of excess deaths have occurred among senior groups. It is therefore important to maintain essential services for the elderly during pandemics.

IDPM: 34617910 | DOI: 10.2196 / 32559

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